On a razor-thin margin, Metropolitan King County Councilmember Dave Upthegrove edged into the No. 2 spot in the lands commissioner primary Friday evening, as his chances improve for a faceoff with former U.S. Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler in November.
As of 5:45 p.m. Friday, Herrera Beutler had 22%, Upthegrove had 20.9% and Sue Kuehl Pederson was falling short with 20.7%.
While Herrera Beutler, a Republican, has consistently led each night since Tuesday, just around 4,400 votes separate Upthegrove from GOP-endorsed Kuehl Pederson, a former power analyst and natural resource officer.
The top two vote-getters in the primary will advance to the general election, regardless of party affiliation. Ballots will continue to be counted for days, as Tuesday was the deadline to have ballots postmarked or placed in drop boxes. The Washington secretary of state estimates that around 144,610 ballots have yet to be processed.
The outcome of the primary could paint very different futures for the management of Washington forests. The Republican candidates would generally manage state lands how they have been in the past.
Upthegrove on the other hand has pledged to pause the sales of so-called legacy forests, which are not considered old growth but are stands of older trees that are more biodiverse, provide better wildlife habitat and combat climate change better than plantation forests logged on short rotations.
While both Herrera Beutler and Kuehl Pederson are expected to be friendlier to the timber industry, Upthegrove has refused to accept funds from the timber companies and fundraising groups.
No one person or entity, other than the federal government, has more influence over Washington’s landscape than the state lands commissioner, who presides over about 6 million acres of the state’s forest, range, agricultural, aquatic and commercial lands — with firefighting responsibilities covering 13 million acres of public and private land.
In the initial Tuesday vote count, Herrera Beutler and Kuehl Pederson led with 22.6% and 20.3%, respectively. Upthegrove trailed behind with 19.9%.
The results had Democrats worried that two Republicans could advance to the general election. The race has been unusually crowded with five Democrats and two Republicans. No Democratic candidate other than Upthegrove has more than 14% of the vote.
One poll from July 31 from left-wing think tank Northwest Progressive Institute showed two Republicans could cruise to November if Democrats split the vote. Nearly half of the voters surveyed were undecided.
No Republican currently holds statewide office in Washington. The last Republican to hold the lands commissioner office was Doug Sutherland, who served from 2001 to 2009.
How candidates and political experts are watching the race
Reached on Friday morning, Kuehl Pederson said she has been on “pins and needles” watching the returns but is “just thrilled” to be receiving this much support.
“It’s very satisfying that I can feel like I’m making a difference in the management of public lands,” she said. “It’s time to just wake up and start doing the work.”
Meanwhile, in the hope of avoiding a Democratic shutout in November, Upthegrove’s campaign is gathering volunteers to help “cure” ballots or identify voters with challenged ballots that were submitted in time. Often in these cases, volunteers encourage these voters to fix their ballot so they can be counted.
Kuehl Pederson said that her campaign is starting to have conversations about processing challenged ballots, but is still waiting to see the results from Friday.
Ballots might be rejected for a missing signature or mismatched signature with a voter’s driver’s license. It’s relatively simple for voters to fix their ballots. King County voters can do it online, and it can be done by phone elsewhere.
Statewide, about 13,616 ballots have been challenged for missing a signature or bearing a mismatched signature, and a few dozen others have been challenged for not having a signature on file, according to data from the secretary of state as of Friday morning. The Washington State Democratic Party says there are around 2,500 challenged ballots from Democratic voters in King County that can be fixed and then counted.
In 2004, the gubernatorial race between Democrat Christine Gregoire and Republican Dino Rossi came down to a 130-vote margin after two recounts and efforts to fix rejected ballots.
An automatic recount is triggered if the difference between candidates is less than 2,000 votes and 0.5% of the vote, according to the secretary of state, though candidates and political parties can also apply for a recount.
On Thursday morning, Stephen Reed, spokesperson for the state Democratic Party, said the lands commissioner race has been unusual, with several strong Democrats running against two strong Republicans, and the results have so far not been out of line with what the state party expected.
Reed said that they were biting their nails a bit but the more progressive vote, especially from King County, often comes in late. The initial metrics the party assessed showed that the ballots counted since Election Day have trended more blue than those received before.
“This is one of — depending on how you see it — the advantages or disadvantages of the top two primary,” said Cornell Clayton, the director of the Thomas S. Foley Institute for Public Policy and Public Service at Washington State University.
“When you have a lot of candidates in the same party running, they’re likely to split up the vote, and that means a minority party can take the top two seats,” Clayton said. “And that’s what’s happening here.”
Democrats overall have claimed more than half (about 57%) of the vote, while Republican vote totals are hovering around 43%, which is typical for a statewide election between a Democrat and Republican, Clayton said Friday morning.
If you want to look for a spoiler, Clayton said, that’s Allen Lebovitz, the ecologist and wildland firefighter who fundraised very little and came out of nowhere to capture a good portion of the vote.
“Our campaign had been sounding the alarm for months and months that there was a serious risk of two Republicans advancing,” Upthegrove said in an interview Friday morning. “We knew this was a very realistic outcome.”
Challenged ballots that are not fixed would not make it into the final tally. The deadline to certify election results is Aug. 20 for counties and the secretary of state certifies the final result by Aug. 23.